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Related Experiment Videos

The evasive plausibility.

D Beninson1, B Lindell

  • 1Swedish Radiation Protection Institute, Stockholm.

Journal of Radiological Protection : Official Journal of the Society for Radiological Protection
|April 3, 2001
PubMed
Summary
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Assessing event probability P(X) often involves conditional assumptions A. A new term, "plausibility," is proposed for the weighted quantity psi(A) x P(X / A), distinguishing it from traditional probability.

Area of Science:

  • Statistics
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Assessing the probability of a single event (X) is a common practical challenge.
  • Event probability P(X) is frequently conditional on an assumption (A), denoted P(X / A).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce a new term for a weighted probability calculation.
  • To differentiate this weighted quantity from standard unconditional probability.

Main Methods:

  • The study proposes weighting a conditional probability P(X / A) by a factor psi(A), representing belief in the assumption's validity.
  • It analyzes the nature of the resulting weighted quantity, psi(A) x P(X / A).

Main Results:

  • The weighted quantity psi(A) x P(X / A) is not a true unconditional probability in the conventional sense.

Related Experiment Videos

  • This is because the weighting factor psi(A) is not a stochastic quantity, despite potential treatment as a probability in Bayesian statistics.

    • Conclusions:

    • A new term, 'plausibility,' is suggested for the weighted quantity psi(A) x P(X / A).
    • This term aims to clearly distinguish this measure from standard unconditional probabilities in statistical assessments.