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Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change
M P Hoerling1, J W Hurrell, T Xu
1Climate Diagnostics Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Environmental Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO 80303, USA. mph@cdc.noaa.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|April 9, 2001
Summary
Global climate change since 1950 is linked to warming tropical oceans. This warming influences rainfall and atmospheric heating, driving a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) towards one extreme phase.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- North Atlantic climate change has been observed since 1950.
- Tropical sea surface temperatures show progressive warming, particularly in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the link between tropical ocean warming and North Atlantic climate change.
- To understand how tropical ocean changes influence the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Main Methods:
- Analysis of climate data since 1950.
- Examination of sea surface temperature trends in tropical oceans.
- Assessment of atmospheric response patterns, including the NAO.
Main Results:
- Tropical ocean warming correlates with changes in tropical rainfall and atmospheric heating.
- These tropical changes are linked to the spatial structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
- A trend towards one extreme phase of the NAO has been observed over the past 50 years, driven by tropical ocean warming.
Conclusions:
- Tropical ocean warming is a significant driver of North Atlantic climate trends.
- The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is influenced by large-scale tropical climate shifts.
- Past half-century climate changes in the North Atlantic are a response to slow, tropical ocean warming.
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