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Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change.

D Tilman1, J Fargione, B Wolff

  • 1Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 1987 Upper Buford Circle, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA. tilman@lter.umn.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|April 17, 2001
PubMed
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Global food demand from a growing population will drive significant agricultural expansion over the next 50 years. This expansion threatens natural ecosystems, leading to biodiversity loss and environmental degradation without scientific and policy changes.

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Agricultural Science
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Global population growth and increased wealth are projected to significantly raise food demand.
  • Agriculture is a major driver of global environmental change, with past trends indicating substantial land conversion.
  • Continued expansion risks severe ecological consequences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion driven by future food demand.
  • To highlight the scale of potential habitat loss and ecosystem degradation.
  • To underscore the need for interventions to mitigate these impacts.

Main Methods:

  • Extrapolation of past trends in agricultural expansion and its environmental impacts.
  • Modeling of future scenarios based on projected population and consumption changes.

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  • Assessment of potential consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity.

    • Main Results:

    • Up to 1 billion hectares of natural ecosystems may be converted to agriculture by 2050.
    • Nitrogen and phosphorus eutrophication could increase 2.4- to 2.7-fold.
    • Pesticide use is projected to increase comparably, alongside habitat destruction.

    Conclusions:

    • Unprecedented ecosystem simplification, loss of services, and species extinctions are likely.
    • Urgent scientific, regulatory, technological, and policy advancements are crucial.
    • Mitigation strategies are essential to control the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion.