Luteal phase hormonal profile in prediction of pregnancy outcome after assisted reproduction

The clinical efficacy of luteal phase hormones including estradiol and progesterone in the prediction of pregnancy and its outcome in ICSI-ET cycles was evaluated. In 121 ICSI-ET cycles, serial estradiol and progesterone levels were measured in the luteal phase. The day of ovum pick-up was designated as day 0. All the patients had luteal support with vaginal progesterone suppositories after embryo transfer (ET). Serial estradiol measurements were performed on days 8, 11 and 13 and progesterone level on day 11. A single dose of hCG was given for corpus luteum rescue 5000 IU, if day 8 estradiol level <200pg/ml; 2000IU, if estradiol between 200 and 800pg/ml; no hCG if estradiol level >800pg/ml). On day 15, beta-hCG level was measured to detect pregnancy and if positive, injected on day 17. Fifty-seven pregnancies were achieved in 121 cases after ET (47%). Clinical pregnancy rate and ongoing pregnancy rate per ET were 37.1 and 30%, respectively. While there was no difference between progesterone levels measured on day 11, estradiol levels on days 11 and 13 were significantly higher in women who became pregnant. In 40 patients taking only progesterone and in 81 cases taking hCG plus progesterone, estradiol levels on days 11 and 13 were significantly higher in women who became pregnant. Progesterone levels on day 11, in progesterone treated groups, did not differ between pregnant and non-pregnant patients. Estradiol and progesterone levels on day 11 and estradiol levels on day 13 showed a big overlap between pregnant and non-pregnant patients. The efficacy of serial testing was evaluated. An increase in estradiol level from day 11 to 13 was associated with 71% pregnancy rate (72% ongoing). In the case of a decrease in estradiol level, the pregnancy rate was 18% of which 80% had to implant. Rising estradiol in the late luteal phase is associated with higher pregnancy rate and more successful pregnancy outcome.