Recent decreasing trend in U.S. juvenile delinquency attributable to changes in maternal age

Two documented associations, viz., a negative one between maternal age and externalizing behavior of the offspring and a positive one between externalizing behavior in childhood and the probability of later (juvenile) delinquency, lead to the prediction that cohort-changes in crime rate over the years are associated with the age of the mothers of these cohorts when the children were born. This prediction was tested by comparing U.S. crime figures between 1987 and 1997 with maternal age figures 17 years earlier (1970-1980). Both time series show a close resemblance. Although causality from two different time series cannot be asserted, the existence of such a relationship is made plausible. Two different hypotheses are presented about the possible nature of causality. Results may be of value for studies in crime epidemiology.