Thunderstorm outflows preceding epidemics of asthma during spring and summer

A study was undertaken to assess the importance of thunderstorms as a cause of epidemics of asthma exacerbations and to investigate the underlying mechanism.

A case control study was performed in six towns in south eastern Australia. Epidemic case days (n = 48) and a random sample of control days (n = 191) were identified by reference to the difference between the observed and expected number of emergency department attendances for asthma. The occurrence of thunderstorms, their associated outflows and cold fronts were ascertained, blind to case status, for each of these days. In addition, the relation of hourly pollen counts to automatic weather station data was examined in detail for the period around one severe epidemic of asthma exacerbations. The main outcome measure was the number of epidemics of asthma exacerbations.

Thunderstorm outflows were detected on 33% of epidemic days and only 3% of control days (odds ratio 15.0, 95% confidence interval 6.0 to 37.6). The association was strongest in late spring and summer. Detailed examination of one severe epidemic showed that its onset coincided with the arrival of the thunderstorm outflow and a 4-12 fold increase in the ambient concentration of grass pollen grains.

These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that some epidemics of exacerbations of asthma are caused by high concentrations of allergenic particles produced by an outflow of colder air, associated with the downdraught from a thunderstorm, sweeping up pollen grains and particles and then concentrating them in a shallow band of air at ground level. This is a common cause of exacerbations of asthma during the pollen season.