HIV-1 RNA levels and development of clinical disease in two different adolescent populations

HIV infection rates in American youth continue to increase unabated. As adolescent-specific therapeutic interventions are planned, information on HIV infection's course and its predictors becomes critically important for valid and precise study design. We report on age-specific disease rates stratified by estimated time since infected and predictors of HIV disease progression through four clinical categories in two distinct adolescent populations. Adolescents with hemophilia infected through contaminated blood products showed disease progression rates of 18 to 23 events per 100 person-years (PYs) by age and years infected. Predictors of first progression included HIV-1 RNA >30,000 copies/ml (rate ratio [RR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-3.9), antiretroviral monotherapy (RR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.7-3.3); Latino/a ethnicity (RR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.2) and initial intermediate clinical status (RR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3-2.9). Sexually-infected adolescents >18 years who had been infected >3 to 6 years had a disease progression rate of 16 events per 100 PY. For these youths, the sole predictor of first progression was viral load (VL) (RR for VL >30,000 copies per ml, 8.4; 95% CI, 2.8-25.1). This article examines the predictive capacity of viral load and evaluates other cofactors for disease progression in different adolescent populations. These data will be of value in clinical trial design.