Validation of genetic case-control studies in AIDS and application to the CX3CR1 polymorphism

New polymorphisms have been recently identified in CX3CR1, a coreceptor for some HIV-1 strains, one of which was associated with a strong acceleration of HIV disease progression. This effect was observed both by a case-control study involving 63 nonprogressors (NP) from the asymptomatic long-term (ALT) cohort and Kaplan-Meier analysis of 426 French seroconverters (SEROCO cohort). These results prompted us to analyze these polymorphisms in 244 nonprogressors (NPs) and 80 rapid progressors (RPs) from the largest case-control cohort known to date, the GRIV cohort. Surprisingly, the genetic frequencies found were identical for both groups under all genetic models (p >.8). The discrepancy with the previous work stemmed only from the difference between GRIV NPs versus ALT NPs. We hypothesized this might be due to the limited number of NPs in ALT (n = 63) and in this line we reanalyzed the data previously collected on GRIV for over 100 different genetic polymorphisms: we effectively observed that the genetic frequencies of some polymorphisms could vary by as much as 10% (absolute percentage) when computing them on the first 50 NP subjects enrolled, on the first 100, or on all the NPs tested (240 study subjects). This observation emphasizes the need for caution in case-control studies involving small numbers of subjects: p values should be low or other control groups should be used.However, the association of the CX3CR1 polymorphism with progression seems quite significant in the Kaplan-Meier analysis of the SEROCO cohort (426 individuals), and the difference observed with GRIV might be explained by a delayed effect of the polymorphism on disease. Further studies on other seroconverter cohorts are needed to confirm the reported association with disease progression.