[Dementia in advanced age: estimating incidence and health care costs]

Based on results from large-scale epidemiological field studies in the western industrial countries, 930,000 elderly people in Germany were estimated to suffer from a dementing disorder at the end of 1996. Following the most recent population projection, a population increase of the number of elderly people (65 yrs. and above) from 12.9 million (mio.) in 1996 to more than 20 mio. in 2030 is anticipated. Based on the assumption that age-specific prevalence rates of dementia will remain stable, a steep rise in patient numbers by an average of 20,000 per year can thus be expected, reaching 1.56 mio. in 2030 and more than 2 mio. in 2050. Studies on the cost of illness point to an enormous economic burden caused by dementia. The unpaid informal care provided by relatives and the high expenses for long-term institutional care can be considered as the most significant components of total costs. Currently, the medical costs associated with diagnosis and treatment, however, appear as an almost negligible fraction of the total costs.