Modeling and analysis of multistate access to elective surgery

In this paper, we attempt to determine whether delays in scheduling operation affect waiting time in a queue for elective surgery. We analyze the waiting-list management system in a Canadian hospital. We estimate the impact of scheduling delays by modeling access to treatment as a multistate process. We found that patients with any delay in scheduling surgery had longer waiting times than patients without delays. For certain sources of delays, the admission rate was 50-60% lower compared with the rate for admissions without a delay independent of urgency of surgical intervention. Our findings support a concern that waiting time for elective surgery is not simply determined by how many patients are on the waiting list, or by how urgently they need treatment, but also by the waiting list management practice.