Is pertussis actually reemerging? Insights from an individual-based model

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

• Pertussis (whooping cough), caused by Bordetella pertussis, is reemerging globally despite vaccination efforts.
• Factors contributing to pertussis resurgence include waning immunity, increased asymptomatic carriers, and the evolution of non-vaccine strains.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a spatially explicit, individual-based model to simulate pertussis dynamics.
• To analyze the impact of various factors on the observed increase in pertussis notifications.

Main Methods:

• Development of a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model.
• Parameterization of the model for an age-structured human population and Bordetella pertussis.
• Incorporation of population structure, immune response, and evolutionary mechanisms.

Main Results:

• The model simulates complex epidemic systems by integrating parasite and human population structures.
• The simulation approach allows for the analysis of hypotheses explaining pertussis reemergence.
• Potential impacts of immunity wane, asymptomatic carriers, and strain selection on pertussis notification rates are modeled.

Conclusions:

• Individual-based modeling provides a framework for understanding pertussis epidemiology.
• The model can be used to investigate the relative contributions of different factors to disease resurgence.
• This approach aids in analyzing the complex interplay of biological and social factors in infectious disease dynamics.