Dynamics of a feline virus with two transmission modes within exponentially growing host populations

K Berthier1, M Langlais, P Auger

  • 1UMR CNRS 5558 Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43 Boulevard du 11 Novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne, France. berthier@biomserv.univ-lyonl.fr

Insights

Feline panleucopenia virus (FPLV) significantly impacted Marion Island

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling
  • Wildlife Ecology

Background:

  • Feline panleucopenia virus (FPLV) was introduced to Marion Island in 1977.
  • FPLV caused a significant decline in the island's cat population.
  • The virus exhibits high environmental survival, enabling both direct and indirect transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the transmission dynamics of FPLV on Marion Island.
  • To assess the impact of direct and indirect transmission routes on FPLV persistence.
  • To identify key factors influencing FPLV-driven population dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a mathematical model incorporating direct and indirect transmission.
  • Comparison of mass-action versus proportionate mixing incidence assumptions for direct transmission.
  • Analysis of model sensitivity to demographic and epidemiological parameters.

Main Results:

  • Mass-action incidence was more appropriate for modeling direct FPLV transmission.
  • Indirect transmission acts as a crucial reservoir, sustaining viral persistence.
  • Host population density was effectively controlled by FPLV under specific conditions.
  • Demographic parameters were found to be more influential than epidemiological parameters on infection dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • FPLV can maintain persistence through a combination of direct and indirect transmission pathways.
  • Accurate demographic data is essential for precise FPLV epidemiological predictions.
  • The model's predictions align well with observed FPLV outbreak patterns on Marion Island.

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