Risk of type 1 diabetes development in children with incidental hyperglycemia: A multicenter Italian study

The aim of our study was to determine whether children with incidental hyperglycemia are at an increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes.

A total of 748 subjects, 1-18 years of age (9.04 +/- 3.62, mean +/- SD), without family history of type 1 diabetes, without obesity, and not receiving drugs were studied and found to have incidental elevated glycemia defined as fasting plasma glucose >5.6 mmol/l confirmed on two occasions. Subjects were tested for immunological, metabolic, and immunogenetic markers.

Islet cell antibodies >5 Juvenile Diabetes Foundation units were found in 10% of subjects, elevated insulin autoantibody levels in 4.6%, GAD antibody in 4.9%, and anti-tyrosine phosphatase-like protein autoantibodies in 3.9%. First-phase insulin response (FPIR) was <1st centile in 25.6% of subjects. The HLA-DR3/DR3 and HLA-DR4/other alleles were more frequent in hyperglycemic children than in normal control subjects (P = 0.012 and P = 0.005, respectively), and the HLA-DR other/other allele was less frequent than in normal control subjects (P = 0.000027). After a median follow-up of 42 months (range 1 month to 7 years), 16 (2.1%) subjects (11 males and 5 females), 4.1-13.9 years of age, became insulin dependent. All had one or more islet autoantibodies, and the majority had impaired insulin response and genetic susceptibility to type 1 diabetes. Diabetes symptoms were recorded in 11 patients and ketonuria only in 4 patients. The cumulative risk of type 1 diabetes was similar in males and females, and it was also similar in subjects under or over 10 years, whereas the cumulative risk of type 1 diabetes was increased in subjects with one or more autoantibodies and in those with FPIR <1st centile.

Children with incidental hyperglycemia have a higher-than-normal frequency of immunological, metabolic, or genetic markers for type 1 diabetes and have an increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes.