Assessment of effects of experimental imprecision on optimized biochemical systems

Metabolic pathways may be optimized with S-system models that prescribe profiles of control variables leading to optimal output while keeping metabolites and enzyme activities within predefined ranges. Monte Carlo simulations show how much the yield and the corresponding metabolite concentrations would be affected by inaccuracies in the experimental implementation of the prescribed profiles. For a recent model of citric acid production in Aspergillus niger, the yield is roughly normally distributed, whereas the distributions of metabolite concentrations differ greatly in shape and statistical characteristics. Even moderate inaccuracies may lead to constraint violations, which appear to be correlated with high logarithmic gains.