Effect of hatch on the distribution for failure of an embryo to survive incubation

The objectives of this paper were to validate an improved model to describe failure to hatch by using data obtained from two hatches of a line of chickens and to examine the effect of hatch on the distribution for time of failure of an embryo to survive incubation. Breakout analysis of 11,254 eggs that failed to hatch was used to characterize the distribution for time of failure to survive and the probability of failure to hatch. The distribution for time of failure to survive was modeled by a diphasic Weibull distribution, corresponding to the two phases of increased embryonic mortality during incubation. Distribution parameters for time of failure to survive were estimated by maximum likelihood and minimum Hellinger distance. Goodness-of-fit statistics validated the appropriateness of the diphasic Weibull distribution. Overall, the proportion of infertility was 0.213, and the proportion of embryonic mortality by the end of incubation was 0.086. Among embryos that suffered mortality during incubation, the proportion that died during Phase 1 was 0.77; therefore, 0.23 died during Phase 2. For Phase 1, mean time of mortality was 2.6 d, and standard deviation was 3.3 d. For Phase 2, mean time was 17.4 d, and standard deviation was 2.0 d. Time of mortality was distributed differently in the two hatches; this difference occurred mostly during Phase 1. Failure rates of the two hatches were different during the first 3 d of incubation. The model is useful to assess probability of failure to hatch and the distribution for time of failure to survive during incubation.