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Related Experiment Videos

Predicting Affective Responses to Unexpected Outcomes.

Richard Coughlan1, Terry Connolly

  • 1University of Richmond

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
|July 20, 2001
PubMed
Summary
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People expect and experience value based on Prospect Theory, with surprising outcomes amplifying emotional responses. However, individuals underestimate this amplification, leading to unexpected emotional variability.

Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Psychology

Background:

  • Decision-making under uncertainty involves navigating unpredictable links between actions, outcomes, and emotional responses.
  • Understanding affective responses to expected versus unexpected outcomes is crucial for decision theory.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine affective responses to expected and unexpected outcomes.
  • To investigate how outcome surprise influences emotional reactions in decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Study 1: Scenario-based laboratory experiment (N=149) assessing predicted responses to outcomes based on surprise.
  • Study 2: Field study (N=127) with bowlers predicting scores and affective responses, measuring actual reactions post-game.

Main Results:

Related Experiment Videos

  • Findings align with Prospect Theory, showing a loss-averse, expectation-based value function.
  • Outcome surprise amplifies affective responses, an effect participants both anticipate and experience, but underestimate.
  • Participants exhibit narrower prediction ranges than warranted by outcome variability.

Conclusions:

  • Individuals underestimate the impact of outcome surprise on their affective states.
  • Underestimation of surprise amplification and narrow prediction ranges lead to greater-than-anticipated emotional variability.
  • These findings have implications for understanding risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty.