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Related Experiment Videos

The Disjunction Effect: Does It Exist for Two-Step Gambles?

Anton Kühberger1, Dagmara Komunska, Josef Perner

  • 1University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
|July 20, 2001
PubMed
Summary
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This study found that the disjunction effect, a claimed violation of the Sure Thing Principle in decision-making, is not replicable in repeated gambles. People consistently adhere to the Sure Thing Principle when making decisions under uncertainty.

Area of Science:

  • Decision Sciences
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • The Sure Thing Principle, a foundational axiom in rational decision theory under uncertainty, posits that preferences should remain consistent regardless of whether an event's occurrence is known.
  • Tversky and Shafir (1992) proposed the disjunction effect as a violation of this principle, observed in specific two-step gamble scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the replicability of the disjunction effect as demonstrated by Tversky and Shafir (1992) in the context of two-step gambles.
  • To critically assess the validity of claimed violations of the Sure Thing Principle in decision-making under uncertainty.

Main Methods:

  • The study involved experiments designed to replicate the conditions under which the disjunction effect was previously reported.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Participants' choices in two-step gambles were analyzed to determine adherence to or violation of the Sure Thing Principle.

    • Main Results:

    • The findings indicate that the disjunction effect is not consistently observed when evaluating two-step gambles.
    • Participants demonstrated adherence to Savage's Sure Thing Principle, suggesting the effect's replicability is questionable in this paradigm.

    Conclusions:

    • The replicability of the disjunction effect in two-step gambles is not supported by the present findings.
    • The study casts doubt on the validity of alleged violations of the Sure Thing Principle in certain experimental paradigms and supports its robustness in repeated gamble scenarios.