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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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Climate change. Uncertainty and climate change assessments.

J Reilly1, P H Stone, C E Forest

  • 1Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA. jreilly@mit.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 21, 2001
PubMed
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Clear communication of climate change uncertainties is vital for policy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) needs to improve its uncertainty assessment methods for better climate change policy making.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Policy
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Effective public policy on climate change hinges on clear, quantitative uncertainty discussions.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently evaluated uncertainty in its climate findings and forecasts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose improvements for the IPCC's uncertainty assessment process.
  • To enhance the clarity and consistency of uncertainty quantification in climate change reports.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of the IPCC's current uncertainty assessment procedures.
  • Recommendations for a more consistent and focused approach to quantifying uncertainty.
  • Emphasis on documenting procedures and listing consulted experts when expert judgment is employed.

Main Results:

  • Current IPCC uncertainty assessment can be improved through greater consistency.
  • Focusing quantification on key policy-relevant results will enhance clarity.
  • Full documentation and transparency regarding expert judgment are crucial.

Conclusions:

  • Implementing a standardized, documented approach to uncertainty quantification will strengthen IPCC reports.
  • Improved uncertainty communication is essential for informed climate change policy making.