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Climate change. Uncertainty and climate change assessments
J Reilly1, P H Stone, C E Forest
1Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA. jreilly@mit.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 21, 2001
Summary
Clear communication of climate change uncertainties is vital for policy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) needs to improve its uncertainty assessment methods for better climate change policy making.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Policy
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Effective public policy on climate change hinges on clear, quantitative uncertainty discussions.
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently evaluated uncertainty in its climate findings and forecasts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose improvements for the IPCC's uncertainty assessment process.
- To enhance the clarity and consistency of uncertainty quantification in climate change reports.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of the IPCC's current uncertainty assessment procedures.
- Recommendations for a more consistent and focused approach to quantifying uncertainty.
- Emphasis on documenting procedures and listing consulted experts when expert judgment is employed.
Main Results:
- Current IPCC uncertainty assessment can be improved through greater consistency.
- Focusing quantification on key policy-relevant results will enhance clarity.
- Full documentation and transparency regarding expert judgment are crucial.
Conclusions:
- Implementing a standardized, documented approach to uncertainty quantification will strengthen IPCC reports.
- Improved uncertainty communication is essential for informed climate change policy making.
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