Reducing recurrence in child protective services: impact of a targeted safety protocol

Statewide implementation of a child safety assessment protocol by the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS) in 1995 is assessed to determine its impact on near-term recurrence of child maltreatment. Literature on the use of risk and safety assessment as a decision-making tool supports the DCFS's approach. The literature on the use of recurrence as a summative measure for evaluation is described. Survival analysis is used with an administrative data set of 400,000 children reported to DCFS between October 1994 and November 1997. An ex-post facto design tests the hypothesis that the use of the protocol cannot be ruled out as an explanation for the observed decline in recurrence following implementation. Several alternative hypotheses are tested: change in use of protective custody, other concurrent changes in state policy, and the concurrent experience of other states. The impact of the protocol to reduce recurrence was not ruled out.