Application of the Third Molar Eruption Predictor to periapical radiographs

The aim of this study was to test whether the Third Molar Eruption Predictor, developed for panoramic radiographs, can also be applied to periapical radiographs. The Third Molar Eruption Predictor is a transparent device (US patent 5,816,814), not commercially available, and developed for prediction of future eruption or impaction of third molars. The material consisted of periapical radiographs of mandibular third molars taken from the lateral projection without angulation of the central beam. The radiographs taken at the mean age of 20.6 years (SD +/- 1.4 years) were retrospectively available from a four-year follow-up study of third molars carried out at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Initially unerupted or partially erupted third molars (n=43) in 28 dental students were analyzed. Clinical statuses of the third molars were available at baseline and four years later. The device was calibrated using the method of simple proportions and Bayes' Decision Theory. The predictions made with the calibrated device were in conformity with the final clinical outcome in 84% of the cases. It was concluded that the Third Molar Eruption Predictor may also be used on periapical radiographs after calibration of the device.