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Updated: Jul 21, 2026
06:55
Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (Propensity Score) using the Military Health System Data Repository and National Death Index
Published on: January 8, 2020
National health projections through 2008
S Smith1, S K Heffler, S Calfo
1Office of the Actuary, Health Care Financing Administration, Baltimore, MD 21244-1850, USA. ssmith2@hcfa.gov
Health Care Financing Review
|August 3, 2001
Summary
US health spending will increase as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), doubling to $2.2 trillion by 2008. Private health spending is projected to accelerate, while Medicare spending growth is expected to slow due to the Balanced Budget Act of 1997.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- US health spending experienced near stability as a share of GDP for six years (1997-2003).
- Projected trends indicate a significant increase in health expenditures relative to economic output.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future trends in US health spending as a share of GDP.
- To analyze shifts in public versus private healthcare expenditure growth patterns.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical health spending data (1997-2003).
- Projection modeling for health spending up to 2008.
- Evaluation of the impact of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 on Medicare spending.
Main Results:
- Health spending is projected to rise from 13.5% of GDP in 1997 to 16.2% by 2008.
- Total US health spending is expected to double from $1.1 trillion in 1997 to $2.2 trillion by 2008.
- A reversal in growth patterns is anticipated, with accelerated private spending and slowed Medicare spending.
Conclusions:
- US healthcare spending is set to increase significantly as a proportion of the national economy.
- Policy interventions, such as the Balanced Budget Act, are expected to reshape healthcare spending dynamics.
- Anticipated acceleration in private health spending may offset slowed public sector growth.
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