Synthetic estimates as an approach to needs assessment: issues and experience

An overview of a study which applied the synthetic estimates technique to derive rates, numbers, types and characteristics of potential clientele for substance abuse related programs in the State and counties of Oregon is presented. A brief description is given of the methods utilized to obtain estimates as well as the means for examining their validity. Inasmuch as the objective of the study was to provide useful information to State and local program planners and administrators, the experience of utilizing the study's findings is presented. Several applications are highlighted to indicate the range of ways in which the study was utilized. The experience of applying the results in a program and policy context surfaced several issues concerning the requirements for validity and accuracy, specificity and, finally, the role of synthetic estimates in needs assessment. The experience suggests that the information derived by this technique will be most useful if integrated with a range of other types of information, both quantiative and subjective.