[Medical manpower in Switzerland: past and future trends]

In 1966, an official report predicted a 3-decades period of shortage of physicians in private practice in Switzerland. However a demographic analysis of the trends of medical students provided a totally different picture, as early as 1971. As a matter of fact, the ratio of doctors in private practice per 100,000 population rose to 195 in 2000 from 88 three decades earlier. In 2020, Switzerland will have a ratio of 240-270, whatever the decisions made today. Will such a tremendous increase introduce a damaging surplus of private practitioners? Medical progress, population aging, increase in the per capita demand for health care and other factors as well give raise to an other conclusion, much more optimistic.