Can maxillary incisor trauma be predicted from cephalometric measurements?

Dental injury is a traumatic event related to many factors, including dentofacial morphology. In a previous study in which we used a logistic regression model, 5 cephalometric variables were defined as being the best predictors of traumatic injury. The purposes of this study were to test the predictive value of the logistic regression analysis results for the occurrence of dental injury in a new patient sample and to compare these results with the outcome based on a visual evaluation of cephalograms. The study population consisted of 2 groups of orthodontic patients: patients with injured incisors (n = 64) and patients with non-injured incisors (n = 90). Cephalometric skeletal, dental, and soft tissue measurements were made. In addition, 6 professional judges visually evaluated all cephalograms. Classification tables were constructed for the results of the logistic regression model and for the assignment of patients according to the visual evaluation of the cephalograms. The percentage of correctly classified patients at the.7 probability level was 62%. Surprisingly, the professional panel rendered an equal predictive value. The relatively inferior performance of both the mathematical model and the "eyeballing" may demonstrate that dentofacial morphology is only partially responsible for susceptibility to trauma.