The Area Production Model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management

In developing countries, planning in the forestry sector has been seen as an appropriate instrument to prepare and implement government policies and programs. Despite its potential and recent advancements in, for example, remote sensing and infrastructure, tropical forest land-use planning is often formal and non-integrated with agriculture. It rarely involves all legitimate stakeholders and neglects taking into account actual land-use. The socio-economic and environmental consequences of these shortcomings emphasise the need for alternative ways of approaching planning. This article summarises the idea, structure and current status of the Area Production Model (APM), originally developed in the 1980s, which is now gaining interest as a land-use planning tool in Africa and Asia. It describes the development over time of production and consumption in agriculture and forestry within a defined geographical area operating under different assumptions on management, land use and socio-economic and macro-economic changes. From a narrow perspective, the APM is a fairly simple computerised tool for generating scenarios. In a broad sense, it is a concept comprising the whole planning process including organisation, inventory, data analysis, consensus building and strategy. A case-study in Laos, based on verified data for a historical period of 45 years, and a review of different APM applications in the world over the last 15 years are presented as a base for conclusions about its potential and shortcomings. In some cases where the APM concept was used in training courses and planning exercises involving stakeholders, it generated a strong interest in collecting and analysing relevant information. It provides the means of addressing a number of shortcomings in current planning.