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Emerging infectious pathogens of wildlife
1Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1003, USA. andy@eno.princeton.edu
Summary
Emerging wildlife diseases, often viral, are frequently caused by human activities. Mathematical models help quantify pathogen spread, considering host population structure and multiple hosts, offering insights into outbreaks like West Nile virus.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Epidemiology
- Disease Ecology
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Wildlife disease outbreaks pose significant ecological and potential zoonotic risks.
- Emerging infectious diseases in wildlife are increasingly recognized globally.
- The ProMED Web site serves as a valuable resource for tracking disease events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To survey emerging wildlife pathogens reported between 1998-2000.
- To develop mathematical models for quantifying pathogen spread (basic reproductive number, R(0)).
- To analyze factors influencing pathogen dynamics, such as host population structure and multi-host utilization.
Main Methods:
- Data compilation from the ProMED Web site for wildlife disease outbreaks.
- Development of matrix models to calculate the basic reproductive number (R(0)).
- Analysis of R(0) sensitivity to spatial host heterogeneity and pathogen host-switching capabilities.
Main Results:
- Viral pathogens were the predominant cause of wildlife disease outbreaks during the study period.
- Anthropogenic activities were identified as the cause in a significant majority of outbreaks.
- Model analyses highlighted the critical influence of host population structure and multi-host pathogen strategies on R(0).
Conclusions:
- Human activities are a major driver of emerging wildlife diseases.
- Mathematical modeling provides crucial insights into the dynamics of novel wildlife pathogens.
- Understanding factors like host heterogeneity is essential for predicting and managing wildlife disease outbreaks.