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Published on: September 20, 2019
Patterns of patient enrollment in randomized controlled trials
1Clinical Trials and Evidence-Based Medicine Unit, Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, Ioannina, Greece.
Abstract:
We aimed to describe enrollment patterns in a large cohort of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and evaluate whether early recruitment predicts the ability of RCTs to reach their target enrollment. We considered all 77 efficacy RCTs initiated by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group between 1986 and 1996 (28,992 patients enrolled until November 1999). Thirteen RCTs (17%) failed to reach half their target recruitment. Enrollment trajectories showed that the initial rate of accrual determined the subsequent rates of enrollment. The target sample size was attained by 7/8, 11/14, 15/35 and 4/20 of trials with very rapid, rapid, moderate and slow enrollment during the first 3 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Enrollment during the first month or two strongly correlated with subsequent accrual (P < 0.001). The patient pool, the eligibility criteria, the attractiveness of a trial and adequacy of the network of clinical sites may influence RCT enrollment. Early enrollment offers strong evidence on the feasibility of a trial and is indicative of its future pace of recruitment.
Insights
Early enrollment in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) strongly predicts if trials will meet their enrollment targets. This finding is crucial for assessing trial feasibility and future recruitment success.
Area of Science:
- Clinical Trials
- Epidemiology
- Health Services Research
Background:
- Recruitment challenges are common in clinical trials.
- Predicting trial success early is vital for resource allocation.
- Understanding enrollment patterns can optimize trial design.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe enrollment patterns in a large cohort of AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) randomized controlled trials (RCTs).
- To evaluate if early recruitment predicts the ability of RCTs to reach their target enrollment.
- To identify factors influencing RCT enrollment.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 77 efficacy RCTs initiated by the ACTG between 1986 and 1996.
- Inclusion of 28,992 patients enrolled until November 1999.
- Examination of enrollment trajectories and correlation with target attainment.
Main Results:
- 17% of RCTs failed to reach half their target recruitment.
- Initial accrual rates significantly determined subsequent enrollment rates (P < 0.001).
- Early enrollment (first 1-3 months) strongly correlated with overall trial accrual (P < 0.001).
Conclusions:
- Early enrollment is a strong indicator of a trial's feasibility and future recruitment pace.
- Factors such as patient pool, eligibility criteria, trial attractiveness, and site adequacy influence enrollment.
- Understanding early enrollment dynamics can improve the success rate of clinical trials.
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