Predictors of early rescreening in the National Cervical Screening Program, Australia

To identify variables that predict early rescreening after a negative Pap smear report.

Cohort study using the records of a statewide Cervical Cytology Registry in Victoria, Australia. The cohort comprised 31,082 women who had a negative Pap smear report during the first half of 1996 and who were rescreened within the subsequent 36 months. Early rescreening was defined as a further Pap smear within 21 months.

The strongest predictor of early rescreening was a recommendation at the time of issuing the negative Pap smear report by the laboratory for retesting before two years (adjusted odds ratio = 3.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.58-4.05). Mention of reactive or inflammatory change as part of the negative Pap smear report was also a powerful predictor (adjusted odds ratio = 1.67, 95% CI 1.50-1.85). Significant predictors associated with the women were young age, high socio-economic status and residence in the capital city. Significant predictors associated with the practitioner were if either the index or subsequent smear was collected by an obstetrician/ gynaecologist or a hospital-based clinic, or if the practitioner collecting the index smear was a female. The population-attributable risk per cent associated with the laboratory recommendation was 27%.

This data suggests that a multifaceted strategy targeting pathology laboratories, practitioners and women may be needed to reduce early rescreening.

Early rescreening is wasteful of health resources. New screening programs should be designed to avoid this problem.