Models for the population biology and control of human onchocerciasis

The absence of animal models in which to reproduce successfully the complete life cycle of Onchocerca volvulus has hindered progress towards unravelling the processes involved in the regulation of parasite abundance in the vertebrate host. Mathematical frameworks have been developed to explore the consequences of such processes in determining parasite population dynamics and the effect on these of control interventions. Post-control predictions are strongly influenced by the assumptions concerning the reproductive life span of the adult female worm (the longest-lived parasite stage) and the distribution of its survival times, and this notion is important to all frameworks. Here, we review the development of models concerning onchocerciasis and discuss the various approaches that have been used, presenting a deterministic framework with parameter values estimated from the Mexican onchocerciasis control programme. This model is used to evaluate interventions combining the removal of adult worms (nodulectomy) and the microfilaricidal and possibly sterilizing effect of ivermectin.