Predictors of carotid endarterectomy in middle-aged individuals

The objective was to investigate which screening variables in a population study predicted carotid endarterectomy. Among 793 carotid endarterectomies performed at Malmö University Hospital between 1991 and 1998, 85 patients (14 females) were identified that had participated in a population screening between 1974 and 1991. Median time from screening to operation was 16 years (range 6-26 years). Screening variables were compared with corresponding values from the background screening population (n = 33261). As operated patients were older than the background population at screening (49 [37-60] vs. 46 [26-61] years; p < 0.0001), comparisons were age-adjusted. Operated patients had higher systolic blood pressure (SBP; 130 [126-133] vs. 125 [125-125] mmHg; p < 0.01), serum total cholesterol (6.1 [5.9-6.3] vs. 5.7 [5.7-5.7] mmol/l; p < 0.0001), serum triglyceride (1.4 [1.3-1.6] vs. 1.1 [1.1-1.1] mmol/l; p < 0.0001), serum glutamic acid transferase (0.46 [0.40-0.53] vs. 0.40 [0.40-0.41] microkat/l; p < 0.05), and plasma fibrinogen (3.77 [3.42-4.16] vs. 3.35 [3.30-3.41] mmol/l; p < 0.05) levels, a lower 120-min insulin/glucose ratio at an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT; 0.48 [0.38-0.58] vs. 0.60 [0.59-0.61]; p < 0.05) and forced vital lung capacity (3.7 [3.6-3.9] vs. 3.9 [3.9-4.0] l/min; p < 0.05), and a higher prevalence of smoking at screening (68% vs. 45%; p < 0.0001). Smoking, SBP, serum total cholesterol, and the 120-min insulin/glucose ratio remained independent predictors for carotid surgery in multivariate analysis. No differences existed among patients operated on because of symptomatic and asymptomatic stenosis. In conclusion, increased SBP and total cholesterol, lower 2-h insulin/glucose ratio at an OGTT, and smoking predict carotid surgery at long-term follow-up.