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PPS-87: a new event oriented solar proton prediction model.

D F Smart1, M A Shea

  • 1Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Bedford, MA 10731, USA.

Advances in Space Research : the Official Journal of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR)
|January 1, 1989
PubMed
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A new solar proton prediction model forecasts energetic particle events and heavy ion flux. It improves accuracy and estimates astronaut radiation dose during extravehicular activities (EVA).

Area of Science:

  • Space Physics
  • Astrophysics
  • Space Weather Forecasting

Background:

  • Accurate prediction of solar particle events is crucial for space mission safety.
  • Existing models require enhancements for real-time forecasting and dose estimation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and implement an advanced event-oriented solar proton prediction model.
  • To provide accurate time-intensity profiles for solar protons and heavy ions.
  • To estimate potential radiation doses for astronauts.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizes electromagnetic emission parameters (microwave, soft X-ray) and solar flare position.
  • Incorporates near real-time data assimilation and model update capabilities.
  • Predicts solar proton flux and converts it into estimated radiation dose.

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Main Results:

  • The model generates predicted solar proton time-intensity profiles for adjustable energy ranges.
  • It can predict heavy ion flux, improving forecast accuracy for event onset and magnitude.
  • The model estimates radiation dose for astronauts during extravehicular activities (EVA) and within spacecraft.

Conclusions:

  • The new model offers improved accuracy in predicting solar particle event characteristics.
  • It provides valuable radiation dose estimations for astronaut safety.
  • The model enhances space weather forecasting capabilities at the USAF Space Environment forecast facility.