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Risk and value analysis of SETI.
1NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California 94035, USA.
Acta Astronautica
|January 1, 1990
Summary
This study suggests the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) is a worthwhile endeavor. A risk and value analysis indicates SETI holds comparable value to Project Viking
Area of Science:
- Astrobiology
- Risk Analysis
- Decision Theory
Background:
- Assessing the value of scientific endeavors like SETI presents challenges.
- Previous extraterrestrial life searches, such as Project Viking, offer a benchmark for comparison.
Purpose of the Study:
- To apply traditional risk and value analysis to SETI.
- To compare the potential worth of SETI with past extraterrestrial life detection experiments.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Utility Theory for quantitative analysis.
- Assessed risks and potential value, acknowledging difficulties in probability estimation.
- Compared SETI against the biological component of Project Viking.
Main Results:
- Despite challenges in estimating success probability, SETI demonstrates significant potential value.
- Utility analysis suggests SETI is at least as valuable as Project Viking's biological experiments.
Conclusions:
- SETI represents a scientifically valuable pursuit.
- Risk-benefit analysis supports continued investment and research in SETI.