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Rates of speciation in the fossil record.

J J Sepkoski1

  • 1Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, IL 60637, USA.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
|September 7, 2001
PubMed
Summary
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Global species origination rates have declined over geological time, influenced by higher taxa and mass extinction recovery. Speciation generally decreases within taxa but remains higher in tropics, with climate change having complex effects.

Area of Science:

  • Palaeontology
  • Biodiversity Science
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • The global biota is expected to produce approximately three new species annually, based on palaeontological and biodiversity data.
  • However, the fossil record reveals significant fluctuations around this average speciation rate.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze long-term trends and variations in species origination rates throughout the Phanerozoic.
  • To investigate the factors driving changes in speciation and extinction rates across different taxonomic levels and environmental conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of fossil records to reconstruct historical speciation and extinction patterns.
  • Comparative analysis of speciation rates among higher taxa (e.g., classes).
  • Examination of the correlation between speciation pulses, mass extinctions, and climate change events.
Keywords:
NASA Discipline ExobiologyNon-NASA Center

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Main Results:

  • A general decline in origination rates has been observed throughout the Phanerozoic.
  • Speciation rates are strongly influenced by the sorting of higher taxa, which possess distinct speciation and extinction characteristics.
  • Accelerated speciation occurred during recovery periods following mass extinctions, and speciation rates tend to be higher in tropical regions.

Conclusions:

  • The long-term decline in speciation rates is primarily a consequence of taxonomic sorting and the evolutionary histories of major groups.
  • While climate change can influence speciation, its effect is complex, and moderate climate oscillations do not consistently promote speciation.
  • Understanding these historical patterns is crucial for biodiversity conservation and predicting future evolutionary trajectories.