The effects of coronal holes on the propagation of solar energetic protons

The accurate prediction of the start of a Solar Energetic Particle Event (SEP) is a high priority for space weather forecasters. The Space Environment Center (SEC) has recorded parameters related to SEPs since 1976, and that list includes a total of 134 events for the period 1976-1997. The onset times of individual events are variable, especially SEPs originating from the solar eastern hemisphere. An examination of the data shows the full set can be divided into two families--those that begin at the geosynchronous satellite at a time consistent with what would be expected for activity from a given heliolongitude, and those whose onset is later than what accepted forecast techniques would predict. There are 21 "long onset" events in this historical record. Seeking to understand what factors distinguished the slow-to-arrive events, Helium I 1083.0 nm observations were examined for the presence of coronal holes at the times of the SEPs. It was found that all SEPs with long onset times had a coronal hole situated between the flare site and the footpoint of the interplanetary magnetic field line connecting to Earth (Kunches and Zwickl, 1997 Solar-Terrestrial Predictions-V, Hiraiso Solar-Terrestrial Research Center, Ibaraki, Japan). This coronal hole configuration is important for accurate predictions, although the hole may serve as merely a proxy for the plasma conditions that actually affect the propagation and acceleration of the protons. Since coronal holes are easily identifiable using Helium I and other wavelengths, operational forecasters can employ this technique to improve their predictions of SEPs.