An innovative approach of risk planning for space programs

Area of Science:

• Aerospace Engineering
• Systems Engineering
• Risk Management

Background:

• Current rule-based risk management at NASA focuses on containing all identified risks, often exhausting resources.
• This approach lacks conscious risk-cost evaluation, potentially leading to undesirable residual risks and inefficient resource allocation for marginal hazard reduction.
• Budget limitations can result in significant resource expenditure for minor hazard mitigation, leaving critical hazards unaddressed.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a knowledge-based risk planning system for judiciously trading risk with other program resources.
• To enable cost-effective decision-making for residual risks within acceptable ranges.

Main Methods:

• Development of a knowledge-based system for risk planning.
• Incorporation of feasible option sets that detail the incremental cost for marginal hazard reduction.
• Facilitating management decisions by providing insights into risk-resource trade-offs.

Main Results:

• The proposed system enables a conscious trade-off between risk and resources like schedule, cost, reliability, and performance.
• Management can make informed decisions regarding acceptable residual risk levels based on cost-benefit analysis of mitigation options.
• This leads to a more judicious and cost-effective allocation of program resources.

Conclusions:

• A knowledge-based approach offers a more effective strategy for risk management in aerospace programs compared to traditional rule-based methods.
• This system supports informed decision-making, optimizing resource allocation and managing residual risks within acceptable parameters.
• It promotes a cost-effective balance between hazard mitigation and program constraints.