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[Estimating the supply of medical specialists in Colombia by using the capture-recapture method]
Insights
The number of medical specialists in Colombia has doubled in under a decade, with some fields like neurosurgery already facing oversupply. This study used capture-recapture methods to estimate physician populations.
Area of Science:
- Health Workforce Research
- Medical Statistics
- Population Estimation Techniques
Background:
- Accurate data on the supply of medical specialists is crucial for understanding healthcare demand and planning.
- Previous estimates of physician numbers in Colombia were lacking, rendering demand studies theoretical.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the supply of 12 key medical specialties in Colombia.
- To apply the capture-recapture technique, a method typically used in zoology, to human population studies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized three distinct data sources for 'captures': university records, medical society memberships, and healthcare enterprise specialist lists.
- Employed the CAPTURE software program to estimate the total population of specialists based on the collected data.
- Compiled a total of 24,910 records from the three sources.
Main Results:
- The study estimated the number of specialists across 12 fields, with figures ranging from 304 for pulmonary disease to 2,338 for obstetrics and gynecology.
- Over half of the physicians included in the study entered the Colombian labor market within the last ten years.
- Specific estimates included: anesthesiology (1,753), cardiology (607), dermatology (517), neurosurgery (324), neurology (321), ophthalmology (1,049), orthopedics (1,217), otolaryngology (634), psychiatry (855), and urology (452).
Conclusions:
- The capture-recapture technique proved effective for estimating human resources in the medical field.
- Colombia has experienced a doubling of its specialist physician workforce in less than a decade.
- Certain specialties, such as neurosurgery, are identified as oversupplied, with growth rates in other fields suggesting a future oversupply for the healthcare system.
Objective:
Given that it is not known how many medical doctors there are in Colombia and that, without that datum, studies of demand are simply theoretical exercises, we proposed to estimate the supply of 12 medical specialties in Colombia, using the capture-recapture technique, which was developed by zoologists to estimate wild-animal populations.
Methods:
Three lists, or "captures," were used: 1) university degrees obtained abroad and graduates of postgraduate programs in Colombia, 2) members of medical societies, and 3) specialists in the principal health care enterprises. To estimate the total population we used the CAPTURE software program.
Results:
A total of 24,910 records were obtained: 8,397 from the university records, 6,561 from the scientific societies, and 9,952 from the health care businesses. More than half of the physicians have entered the labor market during the last decade. The estimated number of physicians (with the 95% confidence interval) for each specialty was: anesthesiology, 1,753 (1,727 to 1,789); cardiology, 607 (598 to 624); dermatology, 517 (514 to 525); obstetrics and gynecology, 2,338 (2,290 to 2,400); pulmonary disease, 304 (297 to 320); neurosurgery, 324 (319 to 334); neurology, 321 (296 to 369); ophthalmology, 1,049 (1,042 to 1,061); orthopedics, 1,217 (1,212 to 1,227); otolaryngology, 634 (628 to 645); psychiatry, 855 (838 to 879); and urology, 452 (452 to 458).
Conclusions:
The capture-recapture technique is useful in the study of human resources. In Colombia the number of specialists doubled in less than a decade. There are specialties that are already oversupplied, such as neurosurgery. All the other specialties show growth rates that indicate a future over-supply for the health care system.
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