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[Cancer incidence estimates for Germany via log-linear models].

J Haberland1, J Bertz, B Görsch

  • 1Dachdokumentation Krebs, Epidemiologisches Datenzentrum Abt. Epidemiologie und Gesundheitsberichterstattung Robert Koch-Institut, Berlin. haberlandj@rki.de

Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband Der Arzte Des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))
|September 19, 2001
PubMed
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Germany lacks nationwide cancer registration. A new model estimates 347,000 new cancer cases in 1998, with incidence rates slightly decreasing for males and increasing for females.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics
  • Public Health

Context:

  • Germany currently lacks a comprehensive nationwide cancer registration system.
  • Accurate cancer incidence data is crucial for public health planning and resource allocation.
  • Existing data relies on regional registries, necessitating robust estimation methods for national figures.

Purpose:

  • To estimate national cancer incidence in Germany for the year 1998.
  • To develop and apply statistical models for inferring nationwide cancer cases from available data.
  • To assess temporal trends in age-standardized cancer rates for males and females during the 1990s.

Summary:

  • Poisson regression models were utilized, fitting incidence-to-mortality ratios using age- and sex-specific data from the Saarland cancer registry.

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  • These models were then applied to national mortality data to estimate the absolute number of incident cancer cases.
  • The study estimates 347,000 new cancer cases in Germany in 1998 (179,000 female, 168,000 male) and indicates a slight decrease in age-standardized rates for males and a slight increase for females during the 1990s.

    • Impact:

    • Provides crucial estimates of national cancer burden in the absence of a central registry.
    • Enables the monitoring of cancer incidence trends, informing public health interventions and policy.
    • Highlights the need for a standardized nationwide cancer registration system in Germany.