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[Cancer incidence estimates for Germany via log-linear models]
J Haberland1, J Bertz, B Görsch
1Dachdokumentation Krebs, Epidemiologisches Datenzentrum Abt. Epidemiologie und Gesundheitsberichterstattung Robert Koch-Institut, Berlin. haberlandj@rki.de
Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband Der Arzte Des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))
|September 19, 2001
Summary
Germany lacks nationwide cancer registration. A new model estimates 347,000 new cancer cases in 1998, with incidence rates slightly decreasing for males and increasing for females.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
- Public Health
Context:
- Germany currently lacks a comprehensive nationwide cancer registration system.
- Accurate cancer incidence data is crucial for public health planning and resource allocation.
- Existing data relies on regional registries, necessitating robust estimation methods for national figures.
Purpose:
- To estimate national cancer incidence in Germany for the year 1998.
- To develop and apply statistical models for inferring nationwide cancer cases from available data.
- To assess temporal trends in age-standardized cancer rates for males and females during the 1990s.
Summary:
- Poisson regression models were utilized, fitting incidence-to-mortality ratios using age- and sex-specific data from the Saarland cancer registry.
- These models were then applied to national mortality data to estimate the absolute number of incident cancer cases.
- The study estimates 347,000 new cancer cases in Germany in 1998 (179,000 female, 168,000 male) and indicates a slight decrease in age-standardized rates for males and a slight increase for females during the 1990s.
Impact:
- Provides crucial estimates of national cancer burden in the absence of a central registry.
- Enables the monitoring of cancer incidence trends, informing public health interventions and policy.
- Highlights the need for a standardized nationwide cancer registration system in Germany.