A simulation model for analysing patient activity in dermatology

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Dermatology
• Health Economics

Background:

• Assessing patient activity in primary and secondary healthcare sectors post-dermatology consultation is crucial for resource planning.
• The UK teledermatology trial provided valuable data on patient journeys and healthcare utilization.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a generalizable model for evaluating patient activity following dermatology outpatient consultations.
• To identify key factors influencing the number of doctor-patient interactions and inform healthcare resource allocation.

Main Methods:

• Development of a quantitative model based on observed variables from the UK teledermatology trial.
• Analysis of patient activity, including the number of doctor-patient interactions and healthcare visits.
• Simulation analysis to determine the impact of various parameters on patient care pathways.

Main Results:

• The model indicated that up to 11 doctor-patient interactions can occur before patient discharge.
• In a cohort of 1000 patients, the average number of healthcare visits was 2.4 (range 1-11).
• Patient discharge following the initial consultation was identified as the most critical parameter influencing total interactions.

Conclusions:

• Concentrating resources on improving patient discharge processes is essential for optimizing dermatology healthcare.
• The introduction of teledermatology (real-time or store-and-forward) alters model parameters, impacting healthcare delivery.
• The developed model serves as a quantitative tool for strategic planning in dermatology healthcare provision.