Analysis of progress in road safety in ten European countries

Classic models for the long-term forecasting of the number of fatalities in road accidents are based on a decreasing exponential form of the rate of fatalities per vehicle x km. We decided to extend this simple model to incorporate intervention functions connected with the major safety measures introduced and to replace the deterministic trend by a stochastic one. Harvey's structural model, known as the local linear trend model, is applied to ten European countries. The relationship between the slope of this trend and the elasticity in terms of the number of vehicles x km yields an indicator of the rate of progress in road safety made in the different countries. The average rate is around -6% per annum, with a minimum of -4.5% and a maximum of -13.5% for Spain in 1994. Europe's road systems can thus absorb a 6% increase in traffic per annum while maintaining the number of fatalities constant.