Prediction of biodegradation from the atom-type electrotopological state indices

A group contribution method based on atom-type electrotopological state indices for predicting the biodegradation of a diverse set of 241 organic chemicals is presented. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks were used to build the models using a training set of 172 compounds, for which the approximate time for ultimate biodegradation was estimated from the results of a survey of an expert panel. Derived models were validated by using a leave-25%-out method and against two test sets of 12 and 57 chemicals not included in the training set. The squared correlation coefficient (r2) for a linear model with 15 structural parameters was 0.76 for the training set and 0.68 for the test set of 12 molecules. The model predicted correctly the biodegradation of 48 chemicals in the test set of 57 molecules, for which biodegradability was presented as rapid or slow. The use of artificial neural networks gave better prediction for both test sets when the same set of parameters was tested as inputs in neural network simulations. The predictions of rapidly biodegradable chemicals were more accurate than the predictions of slowly biodegradable chemicals for both the regression and neural network models.