[Prognostic systems in intensive care: TRISS, SAPS II, APACHE III]

To validate the accuracy of SAPS II, APACHE III and TRISS for the prediction of mortality in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at polytrauma patients admission. The outcome of multiple trauma patients is often linked to the degree of physiologic dysfunction and to the extension of anatomic lesions, the age of the patient and the lesion mechanism.

The study population consisted of 93 cases of multiple injured patients hospitalised at the ICU of the Padua hospital from October 1998 to October 1999; the term polytraumatized patient is referred to patients who have multiple lesions of which at least one potentially endangers, immediately or in a short term, their life. These cases were evaluated with the APACHE III, SAPS II, Revised Trauma Score and Injury Severity Score. The predictive power of each system was evaluated by using decision matrix analysis to compare observed and predicted outcome with a decision criterion of 0.50 and 0.40 for risk of hospital death.

All trauma score systems under study showed high accuracy rates, above all if they are used with a 40% positive test.

The prognostic scales used in this study showed a good correlation between expected and observed cases, particularly with TRISS and APACHE III systems. The APACHE III system seems to be the most reliable of the different methods analysed. These prognostic systems are seldom or occasionally used in the ICU, in Padua and in the whole of Italy, so Italian data are not suitable to be compared to international ones. Due to urgency, the importance of the evaluation scales is often underestimated, but even if they require time and attention, they surely can be useful in the evaluation of the treatment, and not only of a polytraumatized patient.