Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

V I Keilis-Borok1

  • 1International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|April 30, 1996
PubMed
Summary

Strong earthquake prediction is possible using seismicity patterns observed years in advance. These earthquake prediction methods identify 80% of strong events, enabling damage reduction.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Variations of trends of indicators describing complex systems: change of scaling precursory to extreme events.

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)·2010
Same author

Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: five case histories in Southern California.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·2002
Same author

Similarities of multiple fracturing on a neutron star and on the Earth.

Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics·2000
Same author

Aggregate-level analysis and prediction of midterm senatorial elections in the United States, 1974-1986.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·1989
Same author

Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·1981
Same author

Model of clustering of earthquakes.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·1981

Area of Science:

  • Geophysics
  • Seismology
  • Nonlinear Dynamics

Background:

  • Earthquakes of magnitude M are preceded by seismicity patterns.
  • These patterns occur years before the main event in a large area (5L-10L).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze seismicity patterns preceding strong earthquakes.
  • To develop and assess earthquake prediction algorithms based on these patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of seismicity patterns in the magnitude range (M-3) to (M-4).
  • Identification of long-range correlations in fault system dynamics.
  • Global comparison of earthquake precursor symptoms.

Main Results:

  • Prediction algorithms can identify approximately 80% of strong earthquakes.
  • Alarm areas can be reduced to 2L-3L with lower magnitude observations.
  • Identified symptoms of approaching earthquakes show partial global similarity and are common to nonlinear systems.

Conclusions:

  • Seismicity patterns offer a viable approach for strong earthquake prediction.
  • Further development of prediction methods is supported by identified correlations and symptoms.
  • Earthquake prediction holds potential for considerable damage prevention.

Related Experiment Videos