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Related Experiment Videos

Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction.

H Wakita1

  • 1Laboratory for Earthquake Chemistry, Faculty of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|April 30, 1996
PubMed
Summary

Geochemical and groundwater observations in Japan show potential for earthquake prediction. Long-term radon monitoring reveals precursory changes, identifying sensitive wells and linking radon drops to regional stress states.

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Area of Science:

  • Geophysics
  • Environmental Science
  • Geochemistry

Background:

  • Earthquake prediction research in Japan relies on monitoring geochemical and groundwater changes.
  • The evolution of these observational techniques is closely tied to the national earthquake prediction program's advancements.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To describe the current state of geochemical and groundwater observations for earthquake prediction in Japan.
  • To present key findings from recent studies on radon and groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 18-year radon observation data from the SKE (Suikoen) well.
  • Identification and characterization of sensitive groundwater wells for anomaly detection.
  • Monitoring of radon concentration changes, including coseismic drops, at the KSM (Kashima) well.

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  • Examination of preliminary groundwater chemical data preceding the 1995 Kobe earthquake.

    • Main Results:

    • 18-year radon data from SKE well suggest anomalous radon changes preceding the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake are likely precursory.
    • Certain wells demonstrate high sensitivity for detecting potential earthquake precursor signals.
    • Coseismic radon drops at KSM well correlate with shifts in the regional stress state.

    Conclusions:

    • Radon monitoring in groundwater shows promise as a tool for earthquake prediction in Japan.
    • Identifying sensitive wells is crucial for effective geochemical monitoring.
    • Groundwater geochemical changes, including radon anomalies and coseismic drops, provide insights into stress state variations preceding earthquakes.