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Related Experiment Videos

The observed global warming record: what does it tell us?

T M Wigley1, P D Jones, S C Raper

  • 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|August 5, 1997
PubMed
Summary

Global temperature changes are analyzed using climate models and observational data. While aerosol and solar forcing improve model fits, uncertainties remain in determining climate sensitivity from observed global temperatures.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Atmospheric science
  • Earth system science

Background:

  • Global near-surface temperature datasets are crucial for understanding climate change.
  • Discrepancies exist between different temperature datasets, such as those from Jones and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To interpret global-mean temperature changes in the context of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability.
  • To assess the impact of aerosol and solar forcing on climate model-observation agreement.
  • To evaluate the use of observed global temperature changes for constraining climate sensitivity.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of global near-surface temperature datasets.
  • Interpretation of temperature changes using climate models incorporating anthropogenic and natural forcings.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Comparison of model-derived climate sensitivity with observational data.

    • Main Results:

    • Including aerosol forcing improves model-observation fit but does not resolve discrepancies in climate sensitivity.
    • Adding solar forcing further enhances model-observation agreement, aligning best-fit sensitivity within the model-based range.
    • Observed global temperature changes, despite improved consistency with models, do not currently narrow the uncertainty range for climate sensitivity.

    Conclusions:

    • Climate model simulations incorporating both aerosol and solar forcing show improved consistency with observed global temperatures.
    • Current uncertainties in observed data and model comparisons prevent using global temperature trends to refine climate sensitivity estimates beyond model-based ranges.
    • Further research is needed to reduce uncertainties in data/model comparisons for a more robust estimation of climate sensitivity.