Euler characteristics and elliptic curves

Let E be a modular elliptic curve over [symbol, see text], without complex multiplication; let p be a prime number where E has good ordinary reduction; and let Finfinity be the field obtained by adjoining [symbol, see text] to all p-power division points on E. Write Ginfinity for the Galois group of Finfinity over [symbol, see text]. Assume that the complex L-series of E over [symbol, see text] does not vanish at s = 1. If p >/= 5, we make a precise conjecture about the value of the Ginfinity-Euler characteristic of the Selmer group of E over Finfinity. If one makes a standard conjecture about the behavior of this Selmer group as a module over the Iwasawa algebra, we are able to prove our conjecture. The crucial local calculations in the proof depend on recent joint work of the first author with R. Greenberg.