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Updated: Oct 4, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Population increase policy after the 1783 great famine in northeastern Tokugawa Japan
1Faculty of Economics, Tezukayama Universitiy, Japan.
Abstract:
During the Tokugawa Period, northeastern Japan has been thought one of the poorest region in the country for the population had been decreasing for over 100 years as early as the 18th century. In particular, farmers had been severely affected by several famines, especially in 1783. I have reevaluated the social and economic situation after 1783 by investigating the details of the in-migration plan. The in-migration plan in the study area was not a kind of welfare policy to relieve farmers affected by the 1783 great famine, but evidence shows the beginning of a proto-industrialization. The demand for female labor to produce hemp cloths increased rapidly from the beginning of the 19th century. Women who were good at weaving were invited as brides.
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