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Related Experiment Videos

Simultaneity bias in migration models: an empirical examination.

M J Greenwood

    Demography
    |August 1, 1975
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study examines migration models, finding that using end-of-period variables can cause bias. Comparing five models for 1960 and 1970 reveals differences in parameter estimates due to this potential bias.

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    Area of Science:

    • Sociology
    • Economics
    • Demography

    Background:

    • Migration research often uses end-of-period variables to explain migration flows.
    • This approach may introduce simultaneous-equations bias due to feedback loops between migration and explanatory variables.
    • Previous studies have not fully addressed this methodological issue.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To empirically examine the impact of simultaneous-equations bias on migration model parameter estimates.
    • To compare qualitative differences in parameter estimates across five distinct migration models.
    • To assess these differences for two distinct time periods: 1960 and 1970.

    Main Methods:

    • Estimation of five different types of migration models.
    • Analysis of parameter estimates for the years 1960 and 1970.
    • Comparison of results obtained from single-equation, multiple-regression analyses.

    Main Results:

    • Significant qualitative differences were observed in parameter estimates across the five migration models.
    • The choice of model and time period influenced the magnitude and direction of parameter estimates.
    • Evidence suggests that simultaneous-equations bias is a relevant concern in migration research.

    Conclusions:

    • Standard migration models using end-of-period variables may yield biased parameter estimates.
    • Researchers should be cautious when interpreting results from single-equation migration analyses.
    • Further investigation into simultaneous-equation models for migration is warranted.

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