Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 21, 2026

Standardized Technique of Aortic Valve Re-implantation for Valve-sparing Aortic Root Replacement
Published on: December 11, 2017
Prediction of operative mortality after valve replacement surgery
F H Edwards1, E D Peterson, L P Coombs
1Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Florida Health Science Center, Jacksonville 32209-6511, USA. fhe@mediaone.net
Insights
Statistical models were developed to predict operative mortality for valve replacement surgery. These benchmarks aid in quality assessment for cardiac procedures.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Surgery
- Health Services Research
- Biostatistics
Background:
- National risk models are established for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.
- No similar risk models exist for heart valve replacement surgery.
Purpose of the Study:
- Develop national benchmarks for valve replacement surgery.
- Create statistical risk models for operative mortality.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database (1994-1997).
- Developed two multivariable risk models: isolated valve replacement and combined CABG/valve replacement.
- Included 49,073 isolated valve replacement patients and 43,463 combined CABG/valve replacement patients.
Main Results:
- Operative mortality rates: AVR 4.00%, MVR 6.04%, CABG/AVR 6.80%, CABG/MVR 13.29%.
- Key risk factors identified: emergency procedures, recent infarction, reoperations, and renal failure.
- Models demonstrated strong predictive accuracy (c-indexes 0.77 and 0.74) and validated prospectively.
Conclusions:
- Developed accurate statistical models to predict operative mortality after valve replacement.
- These models provide a national benchmark for quality assessment in valve replacement surgery.
Objectives:
We sought to develop national benchmarks for valve replacement surgery by developing statistical risk models of operative mortality.
Background:
National risk models for coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) have gained widespread acceptance, but there are no similar models for valve replacement surgery.
Methods:
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database was used to identify risk factors associated with valve surgery from 1994 through 1997. The population was drawn from 49,073 patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR) or mitral valve replacement (MVR) and from 43,463 patients undergoing CABG combined with AVR or MVR. Two multivariable risk models were developed: one for isolated AVR or MVR and one for CABG plus AVR or CABG plus MVR.
Results:
Operative mortality rates for AVR, MVR, combined CABG/AVR and combined CABG/ MVR were 4.00%, 6.04%, 6.80% and 13.29%, respectively. The strongest independent risk factors were emergency/salvage procedures, recent infarction, reoperations and renal failure. The c-indexes were 0.77 and 0.74 for the isolated valve replacement and combined CABG/valve replacement models, respectively. These models retained their predictive accuracy when applied to a prospective patient population undergoing operation from 1998 to 1999. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic was 10.6 (p = 0.225) for the isolated valve replacement model and 12.2 (p = 0.141) for the CABG/valve replacement model.
Conclusions:
Statistical models have been developed to accurately predict operative mortality after valve replacement surgery. These models can be used to enhance quality by providing a national benchmark for valve replacement surgery.
Related Concept Videos
Mitral Valve Prolapse II: Assessment and Management
Mitral Stenosis III: Medical Management
Mitral Stenosis IV: Nursing Management
Cardiomyopathy VII: Pre and Post Operative Nursing Management
Peripheral Artery Disease V: Postoperative Nursing Management
Aneurysm IV: Nursing Management

