Human leukocyte antigen-DQ and DR polymorphisms predict rheumatoid arthritis outcome better than DR alone

Conflicting data have been published on the value of the shared epitope (SE) hypothesis in predicting disease outcome in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Recently we have proposed an alternative hypothesis, referred to as the RA protection (RAP) model. In this model, the HLA-DQ loci carry predisposition while HLA-DRB1 alleles encoding the motif DERAA provide protection against severe RA. In the present study, we have compared the respective values of the models in predicting both remission and erosions in early RA patients. We made use of an early arthritis clinic in which 158 RA patients and 138 patients with undifferentiated arthritis were enrolled. Patients were typed for HLA-DQ and -DR using high resolution DNA typing methods. Homozygosity for predisposing HLA-DQ alleles was associated with no remission and high erosion score. The presence of DERAA-bearing DRB1 alleles was negatively associated with erosions in otherwise predisposed individuals and increased the chance of being in remission. We found that the RAP model was significantly better than the SE model in predicting remission rate and erosion scores at one and two years in early RA patients. We conclude that HLA polymorphism does not only affect RA susceptibility, but also protects against severe disease at early stage.